Buzzards Bay Marine Forecast (2024)

Synopsis
Increasing clouds with onshore winds and spotty light rain/drizzle for much of southern New England tonight. Cool and cloudy with light rain/drizzle for much of the region on Saturday. We are then looking at a prolonged spell of dry weather with warming temperatures starting Sunday and continuing through Wednesday. High temperatures could approach the mid 80s by Tuesday and/or Wednesday in interior Southern New England, with temperatures in the 70s near the coasts. Our next chance for rains doesn't appear until around Thursday.

Near Term - Until 6am Saturday Morning
10 PM.

Light shower activity and stratus has developed across the out Cape and Islands at this hour and is expected to expand inland overnight.

Areas away from the coast particularly in the CT River Valley, remain quite mild for 10pm, with BDL reporting a current temp of 66F which is in start comparison to the coastline where temps are as cool as 51F on Nantucket!

Highlights

* Increasing clouds with spotty light rain/drizzle spreading in from SE to NW. Best shots across central MA/RI eastward.

Ridge axis in place offshore of the Mid Atlantic this evening with a cutoff just south of Nova Scotia and a shortwave over the eastern Great Lakes. The ridge gets flatten out as the shortwave lifts into Upstate New York late tonight. The cutoff becomes an open wave as it lifts to the southeast of Nova Scotia. A broad low will continue to rotate well to the SE of the Cape/Islands, but will meander northwestward this evening. Portions of our interior will have a weak high nudging in.

Main concern in theNear Term - Rest Of Today Through Tonight
he increasing cloud cover along with spotty drizzle/light rain spreading in from SE to NW tonight. Will see our PWATs (Precipitable Waters) surging across central MA/RI into eastern MA to 1-1.25 inches with E/SE flow aloft. This in combination with the increasing low level moisture and the broad low meandering toward us could squeeze out some light rain/drizzle. Guidance tends to struggle in more weakly forced situations like this, but there is a pretty good consensus for light precipitation across eastern MA, but more uncertainty as you spread inland. Have kept chances of precipitation along the immediate coast and lower shots further inland. Given the weak forcing am not anticipating much other than perhaps a few hundredths of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast.

Overnight low temperatures are roughly around seasonable levels, which is right around 50 degrees.

Short Term - 6am Saturday Morning Through Saturday Night
Highlights

* Dreary Saturday with spotty light rain/drizzle and unseasonably cool.

* Still unsettled with spotty light rain/drizzle Saturday night.

Shortwave trough will be working its way through New England Sat. Think it cuts off just east of our region heading into Sun, which will keep us unsettled. Broad area of low pressure remains southeast of our region Sat and Sat night. Portions of the interior may see a weak high nudging in.

As previous shift mentioned a tricky forecast for Sat. Though am leaning toward the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and solutions similar to it. The reason being is in these blocked flow type patterns the ECMWF tends to break things up much slower than other guidance sources, which tends to be closer to reality. Based on this am anticipating a cloudy and dreary Sat for southern New England. Will have persistent NE to NNE winds through this period. Should see an abundance of low level moisture per RH values in the 1000-850 hPa layer per all guidance. Some hints that there could be some breaks in the clouds due to the weak high nudging in for portions of the interior, but not super optimistic about it given the low level RH fields.

Should see isolated to scattered light rain/drizzle across much of southern New England on Sat. Will have PWAT (Precipitable Water) values of roughly 1-1.5 inches. This plume may slide further offshore Sat night, which could potentially bring a break in activity for portions of the interior. Have kept fairly widespread slight chance to chances of precipitation with the best shots across eastern areas. Again though have leaned fairly heavily on the ECMWF, which is much slower to improve conditions. We will also have a northeasterly oriented 20-30 kt LLJ which given the weak forcing should be enough for some light rain/drizzle. Given the cloudier forecast did significantly lower our highs on Sat. Think for most will be unseasonably cool with widespread 50 degree highs. Think the best shot for low/mid 60s is across the CT River Valley. Will be quite similar temp wise Sat Night as tonight with lows around 50.

Long Term - Sunday Through Friday
Key messages... * Dry weather is expected through at least the middle of next week.

* After a slightly cooler than average weekend a big warm-up arrives for early next week with 80s possible by Tuesday and Wednesday, potentially into Thursday.

Details... Sunday... The trend is our friend as we go into the second half of the weekend, with high pressure nudging closer bringing less cloudiness and warming temperatures compared to Saturday. Northeast flow off the ocean will continue to keep temperatures cooler along the east coast (upper 50s) but typical locations further west like the CT Valley will reach the low 70s.

Monday through Wednesday... The first three to four days of next week will offer a stretch of summer-like weather the likes of which we haven't seen much of so far this year. At the surface high pressure continues to move overhead, eventually turning winds out of the SW by Tuesday. So, while increasing sun/insolation on MOnday along with a warming airmass will lead to warmer temps, in the mid to upper 70s, the heat arrives in earnest for Tuesday and Wednesday. This is when SW flow and 850 mb temps jumping from +10C on Monday to +15C on Tuesday will lead to widespread temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The coolest spots will be areas along and adjacent to the south coast, especially Cape Cod where temps remain in the low to mid 60s.

Late week... The warm and dry pattern may break down by Thursday as a mid level shortwave and surface cold front approach bringing the return of rain chances to the forecast, but timing and other details remain uncertain.

Marine
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Extended the SCA (Small Craft Advisory) for the eastern outer waters through 12Z Sun for elevated seas.

Tonight...High confidence.

Winds remain out of the NE at 10-20 kts with some 20-25 kt gusts this evening. Stratus/fog along with light rain/drizzle across the waters. Visibilities of 1/2 to 4 SM with the lowest near and southeast of Nantucket. Seas 1-3 ft across the inner waters and 4-7 ft for the outer.

Saturday... High confidence.

Scattered light rain and drizzle across the waters. Will have visibilities of 3-5 SM. Persistent 15-20 kts out of the NE with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 1-4 ft across the interior waters and 4-6 ft for the outer.

Saturday Night...Moderate confidence.
Scattered light rain and drizzle anticipated to persist. Though some uncertainty on this. Will continue to see NE winds at 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts. Visibilities of 3-5 SM and seas 3-6 ft for the outer waters.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

NOAA Boston MA Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None.

Marine
Small Craft Advisory until 8am EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory until 8pm EDT Saturday for ANZ255-256.