ESPN Fantasy
Dec 16, 2022, 09:30 PM
Daniel Dopp and Liz Loza talk life, fantasy football, pop culture and everything in between in the weekly Fantasy Improv column, which runs every Friday throughout the NFL season. Joe Kaiser serves as the moderator and attempts to keep things on track.
Liz: Fantasy roll call! How many of your squads are playoff bound, and did any secure a first-round bye?
Daniel: I made the playoffs in four of my eight leagues (two of those misses are dynasty leagues in which I was near the very bottom), and all four are 10- or 12-team leagues. I played the streaming QB game most of the season in all but two of my leagues, and that led to mixed results. On one hand, I was able to spend a lot of time reading Eric Moody's weekly waiver wire column in order to find a new starter for my lineup. On the other hand, my QBs stunk. So I don't have a first-round bye in any of my leagues. I did make the second round in 24 of my 176 best-ball leagues, so that's going to be a fun thing to continue to follow throughout the fantasy playoffs.
Joe: I went 4-of-7 and have byes in two of them as a 1-seed and finished just out of the playoffs in two of the leagues. One of those teams looks really good on paper -- Dak Prescott, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker III, Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Darren Waller -- but never got its act together at the same time to be a winner. Luckily it's a redraft league! Both of my best teams finished 13-1 and had these common players: Ja'Marr Chase, Travis Kelce and DeVonta Smith. How about you, Liz?
Liz: I'm still playing in three of six leagues! I snuck into the playoffs in a 16-teamer (Justin Fields helped me orchestrate a heck of a turnaround) and in my 14-team dyno (in which I'm the reigning champ). I also managed a first-round bye in the "ESPN Fantasy Focus" show league. Stephania Bell and I are the 1- and 2-seeds in that one. The Tee Higgins fiasco of Week 14 killed me in guillotine and in a 14-team league in which I would have flexed Jerick McKinnon had Higgins' injury designation changed prior to kick off. Disaster at the QB position remains the story throughout the playoffs. Frustratingly, Justin Herbert was my QB in one of the teams that were eliminated. I'll be piecing together my signal-callers elsewhere. That makes me nervous, for sure.
Joe: It's fun to hear about your leagues. Interestingly, Herbert was the QB on one of my non-playoff teams, too. He was just so short-handed at wide receiver for most of the season, and it impacted his production greatly as fantasy managers waited for things to turn around.
Liz: How much are you paying attention to strength of schedule at this point in the year? I always grapple with the concept. Certainly, it's something to consider. But with the wear and tear of the season mounting (not to mention an extra week), injuries can alter what we define as "weak" or "strong" so quickly. For example, Rams at Packers on Monday Night. Aaron Rodgers gets Romeo Doubs back, and the Rams are likely to be without Aaron Donald. That matchup looks so different now than it did a month ago, not to mention four months ago!
Joe: I am less focused on the weeks ahead than I am the week right in front of me, because unless I can win that matchup the following week(s) won't matter. Survive and advance.
Shifting gears a little, I have heard of some leagues with interesting playoff rules. For instance, I have a friend who runs a league in which the highest remaining seed chooses its opponent in each round (so, in a six-team playoff with the 1- and 2-seeds on first-round byes, the 3-seed chooses in the first round, then the 1-seed chooses in the semis). Do you play in any unique leagues like that?
Liz: Oh, man. I don't want to a be a Fantasy Grinch, but I really don't like goofy playoff scoring/structuring. Football is what most intrigues me about fantasy. Obviously, strategy is a massive part of the real-life game, but I don't want my fantasy to feel like some sort of sudoku/chess/gridiron mashup. Don't get me wrong, I'm a superflex enthusiast (or, at least, I was ... prior to 2022) and have certainly messed around with TE-premium scoring. But when I'm chasing a ring, I am looking to streamline. Give me the closest approximation to the NFL, even if that includes a Week 14 bye.
That said, my advice to the beautifully complicated souls who are drawn to the logic-puzzle approach of fantasy ... is to take it one week at a time. Don't try to outsmart everyone or think too far into the future. Crush the week ahead of you. If players get hurt or matchups become more difficult or blustery conditions blow through, then trust your ability to navigate the waiver wire (it got you this far, after all) and embrace the unknown.
Daniel: Most of my redraft and dynasty leagues have fairly straightforward playoff rules, too, so I don't have anything too fun to add from that department. I'm just hoping that I can get this unbelievable production from Christian Watson for another three weeks to help push me over the top this year.
A lot of our early-season young guys have sorta fizzled out for one reason or another. Travis Etienne Jr. is one who has been really heartbreaking for me because we saw three amazing games from him in Weeks 7-9 and haven't seen that same production since. He's a not-very-confident RB20 for me this week, and I would understand if you were trying to find ways not to start him. Same goes for Mike Evans, as if I even need to explain that one.
Liz: I get that. I am not thrilled about potentially having to start any of the pass-catchers in Arizona. The matchup at Mile High Stadium against the Denver Broncos is, obviously, rough. Adding a dash of backup quarterback Colt McCoy doesn't exactly bring holiday cheer to the situation, either. Currently, I have DeAndre Hopkins ranked just inside my top 20 and Marquise Brown just inside my top 30. However, if the team I'm facing is projected to score 10-plus points more than my squad, then I might consider reaching for a ceiling play like DeVonta Smith at Chicago or Elijah Moore versus Detroit.
Daniel: Elijah Moore is such a tough one for me! Great matchup against the Lions. It's the best matchup he'll probably have all season working out of the slot with Corey Davis likely sidelined, and Moore is coming off a 10-target game, but he has not been a consistent part of this offense and there are some question marks around how effective Mike White might be while nursing a rib injury. Still, I love the situation for all of the Jets' pass-catchers this week.
Joe: What about sleepers for this week? Any jump out to you?
Liz: A few of my favorites: Aaron Rodgers (he gets Doubs back Monday night), J.K. Dobbins (fresh-ish legs), Chris Moore (as long as Nico Collins is sidelined) and Chigoziem Okonkwo (FTW).
Daniel: I do like Dobbins and Chris Moore as sleepers this week as well! Moore is a much deeper dart throw, but both of them are in positions to succeed in Week 15.
Joe: Another thing I'm thinking about, especially for those fantasy managers who are now done for the season -- which players have the most to prove over the final four weeks as far as their fantasy value is concerned for 2023?
D'Andre Swift is one who comes to mind for me. The preseason hype and high rankings, then the shared time with Jamaal Williams while nursing injury. Then the late-season reemergence. I really think how he finishes will be key for him and how fantasy managers view him going into next season.
Liz: That's a great question, Joe! Swift and A.J. Dillon immediately come to mind. It seems clear that load management is the best real-life approach to keeping Swift effective. After the surprise Justin Jackson infusion of Week 14, I'm not sure Swift will secure RB1 status before the year is out.
I do think Dillon could produce as a lead back, but I don't believe he'll be able to do it in Green Bay. Not with Aaron Jones as part of the equation, at least. The faith that Rodgers has in Jones -- in combination with the team's lack of reliable pass-catchers -- fully depressed Dillon's breakout potential this go-around. However, with the mercury dropping and all three wideouts back to health, there's a solid chance the Boston College product rumbles his way to late-season success. Interestingly, 2023 is the final year of Dillon's rookie deal. Meanwhile, Jones is signed through 2024 but does have an out at the end of this year. The Packers are in cap hell and could save $16 million in cap space if they cut Jones prior to the start of the 2023 season. Maximizing Dillon makes sense. But, as Taylor Swift would say, Rodgers and his trust issues makes this situation "delicate."
Daniel: One more: How about Isiah Pacheco? He's a seventh-round rookie who came into the season as a clear backup, and now he's the lead back for the Kansas City Chiefs. If he can close out this season strong and continue to get a target or two per game, imagine how much hype there'll be for a guy his size and speed as the RB1 in this offense. He can do himself a lot of favors for next year in the final four weeks of this year.
Follow Liz Loza (@LizLoza_FF), Daniel Dopp (@DanielDopp) and Joe Kaiser (@joekaisersports) on Twitter. Liz Loza and Daniel Dopp's fantasy football rankings appear every week during the season.
